Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Novak 43.4% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 89.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 71.9%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 80.5%
19.5%
80.5%
Roy
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Roy
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Roy
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Roy
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
41.4% (379)
+10.5%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
46.9% (32)
+7.2%
On even strength, Roy has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Roy
Novak
Home
54.0% (328)
42.6% (195)
Away
50.6% (348)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Roy
Novak
P1
53.5%
42.4%
P2
51.6%
39.2%
P3
51.6%
44.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |