Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Novak 45.6% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 76.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 74.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 50.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Roy
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Roy
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Roy
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
43.8% (384)
+4.5%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
58.8% (17)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
100.0% (1)
-56.3%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +56.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Roy
Novak
Home
50.8% (376)
46.5% (202)
Away
45.4% (392)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Roy
Novak
P1
53.8%
49.2%
P2
43.5%
44.2%
P3
46.4%
40.0%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |