Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Novak 45.0% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 66.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Roy
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Roy
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Roy
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
42.9% (198)
+5.7%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
40.9% (22)
+7.1%
On power play, Roy has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Home / Away
Roy
Novak
Home
49.3% (345)
40.9% (110)
Away
46.4% (433)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Roy
Novak
P1
47.6%
39.1%
P2
47.1%
43.9%
P3
47.9%
44.9%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |