Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs Novak 43.5% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 59.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 88.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Roy
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Roy
Novak
Last 10: Roy 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Roy
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
2
Roy
Novak
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
40.7% (460)
+6.8%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
61.5% (39)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
0.0% (1)
+46.4%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +46.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Roy
Novak
Home
47.2% (398)
47.0% (236)
Away
46.3% (369)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Roy
Novak
P1
48.6%
43.1%
P2
48.8%
43.1%
P3
43.9%
40.1%
Final 5 min
45.1%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 05:08 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |