Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Zegras 42.6% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 56.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 90.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 83.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Roy
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Roy
Zegras
Last 10: Roy 6-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
5
4
Roy
Zegras
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
41.1% (559)
+7.2%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
50.0% (12)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
50.0% (2)
-6.3%
On even strength, Roy has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. Zegras is 37.9% vs right-shot opponents (182).
Home / Away
Roy
Zegras
Home
50.8% (376)
45.7% (247)
Away
45.4% (392)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Roy
Zegras
P1
53.8%
45.5%
P2
43.5%
36.8%
P3
46.4%
41.1%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 03:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |