Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 18 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Zegras 39.2% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 28-8 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 75.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 99.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 95.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 95.2%
95.2%
4.8%
Roy
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
8
(36 meetings)
28
8
Roy
Zegras
Last 10: Roy 9-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
12
3
Roy
Zegras
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
14
4
Roy
Zegras
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
38.6% (1,669)
+10.1%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
38.5% (148)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
28.6% (7)
+16.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Zegras is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Roy
Zegras
Home
49.5% (2,221)
39.9% (882)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Roy
Zegras
P1
50.8%
40.2%
P2
46.3%
38.0%
P3
48.1%
37.7%
OT
50.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
47.2%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 17:23 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 01:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 07:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 03:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |