Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 53.0% vs Gourde 45.6% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 57.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Roy
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Roy
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Roy
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (449)
47.1% (463)
+6.8%
Power Play
53.3% (30)
36.4% (11)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (78)
29.9% (67)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Roy is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Roy shoots right. Gourde is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Roy
Gourde
Home
54.9% (293)
42.3% (215)
Away
51.9% (264)
46.3% (326)
By Period
Roy
Gourde
P1
55.0%
44.8%
P2
51.7%
49.1%
P3
53.7%
40.1%
Final 5 min
49.6%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
53.5%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |