Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 50.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 62.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 54.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Roy
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
20
(33 meetings)
13
20
Roy
Gourde
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
7
4
Roy
Gourde
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
7
Roy
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
9
Roy
Gourde
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
48.4% (4,954)
+0.3%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
57.4% (376)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
39.9% (554)
+5.6%
On power play, Gourde has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Roy
Gourde
Home
49.5% (2,221)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Roy
Gourde
P1
50.8%
49.9%
P2
46.3%
47.4%
P3
48.1%
47.5%
OT
50.0%
37.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 01:55 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 3 | 13:54 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |