Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Cates 40.4% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 97.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.6%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 85.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
Tkachuk
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tkachuk
Cates
Last 7: Tkachuk 6-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
1
Tkachuk
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
40.4% (841)
+7.1%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
42.4% (66)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
32.7% (147)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Cates
Home
49.9% (389)
38.2% (566)
Away
46.8% (376)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Tkachuk
Cates
P1
44.4%
40.5%
P2
51.8%
42.4%
P3
47.8%
35.3%
OT
57.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.3%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Noah Cates |