Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Cates 45.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 10-1 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Lazar 92.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 92.0%
Neutral zone
Lazar 80.5%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Lazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
1
(11 meetings)
10
1
Lazar
Cates
Last 10: Lazar 10-0 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
4
0
Lazar
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
4
1
Lazar
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
46.7% (912)
+4.7%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
33.9% (56)
+28.6%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
35.0% (137)
+12.2%
On power play, Lazar has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Lazar
Cates
Home
49.7% (163)
46.1% (521)
Away
52.3% (237)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Lazar
Cates
P1
46.9%
48.0%
P2
53.3%
42.3%
P3
53.3%
44.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:35 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:40 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:58 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Neutral | Noah Cates |