Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Cates 45.8% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 67.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 83.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Duchene
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Cates
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
44.3% (271)
+12.2%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
77.8% (18)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
31.7% (41)
-9.5%
On power play, Cates has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cates
Home
56.6% (318)
52.0% (148)
Away
56.4% (319)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Duchene
Cates
P1
57.2%
42.7%
P2
55.1%
42.9%
P3
55.6%
48.5%
Final 5 min
47.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |