Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Zacha 51.7% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 57.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 83.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 66.7%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Cates
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Cates
Zacha
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
53.3% (646)
-7.9%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
53.0% (100)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
38.9% (72)
+5.8%
On power play, Zacha has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Cates
Zacha
Home
46.3% (423)
51.7% (410)
Away
43.6% (438)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Cates
Zacha
P1
46.3%
57.7%
P2
47.1%
48.9%
P3
42.1%
50.2%
OT
18.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Noah Cates |