Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Zacha 49.1% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 85.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 62.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 70.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 74.0%
26.0%
74.0%
Cates
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Cates
Zacha
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
3
Cates
Zacha
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
6
4
Cates
Zacha
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
48.9% (5,102)
-4.8%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
55.6% (804)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
42.2% (555)
-7.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Cates
Zacha
Home
43.8% (1,663)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Cates
Zacha
P1
44.5%
49.9%
P2
43.5%
49.2%
P3
41.2%
48.1%
OT
29.4%
53.1%
Final 5 min
41.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |