Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Zacha 52.8% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 90.0%
Defensive zone
Zacha 51.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 68.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Cates
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Cates
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
54.1% (534)
-7.4%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
56.0% (109)
-22.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
44.8% (96)
-9.8%
On power play, Zacha has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Cates
Zacha
Home
46.1% (521)
53.4% (406)
Away
43.3% (584)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Cates
Zacha
P1
48.0%
56.8%
P2
42.3%
53.6%
P3
44.3%
49.2%
OT
31.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Noah Cates |