Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Zacha 46.5% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 75.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 78.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Cates
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cates
Zacha
Last 6: Cates 3-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Cates
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
45.3% (247)
-4.9%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
58.1% (31)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
22.2% (18)
+10.5%
On power play, Zacha has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Zacha is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Cates
Zacha
Home
38.2% (566)
39.7% (131)
Away
41.0% (488)
49.7% (165)
By Period
Cates
Zacha
P1
40.5%
42.9%
P2
42.4%
46.4%
P3
35.3%
42.3%
OT
42.9%
87.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Noah Cates |