Scouting Report
Pierre-Luc Dubois holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Dubois 49.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 62.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 66.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Cates
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Cates
Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
1
Cates
Dubois
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
2
Cates
Dubois
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
46.2% (225)
-0.8%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
66.7% (27)
-24.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
75.0% (8)
-30.3%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +30.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Dubois is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Cates
Dubois
Home
46.3% (423)
46.6% (163)
Away
43.6% (438)
53.6% (97)
By Period
Cates
Dubois
P1
46.3%
45.0%
P2
47.1%
52.3%
P3
42.1%
50.5%
OT
18.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 14:03 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |