Scouting Report
Pierre-Luc Dubois holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubois on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Dubois 49.7% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Dubois 77.0%
Defensive zone
Dubois 55.8%
Neutral zone
Dubois 55.6%
Result
Pierre-Luc Dubois favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Cates
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Cates
Dubois
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
1
2
Cates
Dubois
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Dubois
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Dubois
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
49.8% (1,064)
-3.1%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
46.3% (67)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
53.3% (30)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Dubois is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (770).
Home / Away
Cates
Dubois
Home
46.1% (521)
48.3% (582)
Away
43.3% (584)
51.1% (579)
By Period
Cates
Dubois
P1
48.0%
52.0%
P2
42.3%
49.9%
P3
44.3%
46.9%
OT
31.3%
64.3%
Final 5 min
42.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |