Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Thomas 54.5% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 85.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 54.3%
Neutral zone
Thomas 67.9%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Cates
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Cates
Thomas
Last 6: Cates 4-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Cates
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
55.3% (990)
-8.6%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
54.2% (190)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
52.5% (158)
-17.5%
On power play, Thomas has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Cates shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
Cates
Thomas
Home
46.1% (521)
55.1% (690)
Away
43.3% (584)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Cates
Thomas
P1
48.0%
55.5%
P2
42.3%
56.4%
P3
44.3%
51.5%
OT
31.3%
69.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:15 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Noah Cates |