Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Thomas 51.7% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 65.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 69.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 67.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Cates
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Cates
Thomas
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Cates
Thomas
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Cates
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Cates
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
50.1% (615)
-4.7%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
62.2% (98)
-20.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
52.6% (114)
-7.9%
On power play, Thomas has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Cates
Thomas
Home
46.3% (423)
51.9% (374)
Away
43.6% (438)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Cates
Thomas
P1
46.3%
49.2%
P2
47.1%
55.3%
P3
42.1%
50.6%
OT
18.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |