Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs McLeod 52.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 83.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 83.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 74.5%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 77.0%
23.0%
77.0%
Cates
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Cates
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Cates
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
1
Cates
McLeod
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
52.9% (904)
-6.2%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
57.6% (59)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
49.0% (241)
-14.0%
On power play, McLeod has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Cates
McLeod
Home
46.1% (521)
51.8% (612)
Away
43.3% (584)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Cates
McLeod
P1
48.0%
55.4%
P2
42.3%
50.8%
P3
44.3%
51.6%
OT
31.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |