Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs McLeod 47.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 55.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 76.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 55.0%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Cates
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Cates
McLeod
Last 9: Cates 5-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Cates
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Cates
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
0
Cates
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
49.2% (796)
-3.8%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
44.8% (87)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
43.3% (263)
+1.4%
On even strength, McLeod has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Cates
McLeod
Home
46.3% (423)
49.2% (575)
Away
43.6% (438)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Cates
McLeod
P1
46.3%
52.8%
P2
47.1%
45.1%
P3
42.1%
45.6%
OT
18.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |