Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Kuraly 49.7% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 88.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 68.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 79.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Cates
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Cates
Kuraly
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Kuraly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
Cates
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
49.2% (901)
-8.8%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
68.2% (22)
-25.8%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
49.8% (219)
-17.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Cates
Kuraly
Home
38.2% (566)
51.7% (603)
Away
41.0% (488)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Cates
Kuraly
P1
40.5%
50.9%
P2
42.4%
49.5%
P3
35.3%
49.1%
OT
42.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:22 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 10:11 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |