Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Kuraly 50.1% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 74.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 76.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Cates
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cates
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
51.8% (444)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
45.3% (150)
-0.6%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Cates
Kuraly
Home
46.3% (423)
54.6% (304)
Away
43.6% (438)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Cates
Kuraly
P1
46.3%
55.2%
P2
47.1%
45.7%
P3
42.1%
49.5%
OT
18.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 10:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |