Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Kuraly 53.7% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 67.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 64.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Cates
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Cates
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Cates
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
55.3% (515)
-8.6%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
55.6% (9)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
44.8% (58)
-9.8%
On power play, Kuraly has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Cates
Kuraly
Home
46.1% (521)
57.3% (293)
Away
43.3% (584)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Cates
Kuraly
P1
48.0%
53.8%
P2
42.3%
51.5%
P3
44.3%
57.6%
OT
31.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |