Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs Kuraly 48.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 66.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Cates
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cates
Kuraly
Last 6: Cates 3-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
49.4% (445)
-5.1%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
100.0% (3)
-22.2%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
41.9% (117)
-10.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Cates shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Cates
Kuraly
Home
52.0% (148)
49.2% (248)
Away
38.5% (182)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Cates
Kuraly
P1
42.7%
48.3%
P2
42.9%
44.7%
P3
48.5%
51.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:28 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 05:41 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |