Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Monahan 53.9% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 72.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 56.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Cates
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cates
Monahan
Last 6: Cates 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Cates
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
54.5% (231)
-14.1%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
58.2% (67)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
52.2% (23)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Monahan is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Cates
Monahan
Home
38.2% (566)
53.5% (144)
Away
41.0% (488)
56.5% (177)
By Period
Cates
Monahan
P1
40.5%
52.5%
P2
42.4%
50.9%
P3
35.3%
60.8%
OT
42.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:53 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |