Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Monahan 52.4% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 82.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 84.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 84.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Cates
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
15
(22 meetings)
7
15
Cates
Monahan
Last 10: Cates 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
7
Cates
Monahan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
3
Cates
Monahan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
5
Cates
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
52.4% (853)
-5.7%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
58.6% (174)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
46.5% (144)
-11.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Cates
Monahan
Home
46.1% (521)
53.4% (624)
Away
43.3% (584)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Cates
Monahan
P1
48.0%
53.7%
P2
42.3%
52.4%
P3
44.3%
51.6%
OT
31.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
42.5%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:17 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |