Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Monahan 51.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 24-12 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 91.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 92.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 88.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 91.0%
91.0%
9.0%
Cates
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
24
(36 meetings)
12
24
Cates
Monahan
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
10
Cates
Monahan
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
6
8
Cates
Monahan
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
6
Cates
Monahan
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
51.1% (11,356)
-7.0%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
53.7% (2,580)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
46.0% (766)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Cates
Monahan
Home
43.8% (1,663)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Cates
Monahan
P1
44.5%
50.9%
P2
43.5%
51.7%
P3
41.2%
51.0%
OT
29.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
41.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:17 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Noah Cates |