Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Aho 51.2% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 75.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 89.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 75.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Cates
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Cates
Aho
Last 10: Cates 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Cates
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
9
Cates
Aho
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
48.5% (778)
-8.1%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
63.4% (191)
-21.0%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
50.8% (65)
-18.1%
On power play, Aho has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Cates
Aho
Home
38.2% (566)
51.3% (530)
Away
41.0% (488)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Cates
Aho
P1
40.5%
50.0%
P2
42.4%
51.3%
P3
35.3%
52.1%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
36.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 14:01 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 01:50 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |