Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs Aho 53.8% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 75.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 67.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Cates
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Cates
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Cates
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
51.2% (785)
-6.9%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
63.8% (213)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
57.9% (57)
-26.2%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Cates shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Cates
Aho
Home
52.0% (148)
54.9% (548)
Away
38.5% (182)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Cates
Aho
P1
42.7%
52.8%
P2
42.9%
58.9%
P3
48.5%
50.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |