Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Aho 54.9% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 68.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 91.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 75.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Cates
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Cates
Aho
Last 10: Cates 1-9 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
7
Cates
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Cates
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
54.5% (870)
-7.8%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
62.4% (266)
-28.5%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
37.1% (62)
-2.1%
On power play, Aho has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Cates
Aho
Home
46.1% (521)
53.9% (603)
Away
43.3% (584)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Cates
Aho
P1
48.0%
54.1%
P2
42.3%
55.0%
P3
44.3%
57.4%
OT
31.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.5%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 13:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |