Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Aho 50.0% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 52.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Cates
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Cates
Aho
Last 10: Cates 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Cates
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
49.9% (851)
-4.5%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
53.5% (144)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
43.3% (60)
+1.4%
On power play, Aho has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Cates
Aho
Home
46.3% (423)
53.2% (554)
Away
43.6% (438)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Cates
Aho
P1
46.3%
49.1%
P2
47.1%
50.8%
P3
42.1%
49.7%
OT
18.2%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | OT | 00:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:15 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 00:58 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |