Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 55.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Cates
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Cates
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Cates
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
56.1% (342)
-10.7%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
53.3% (92)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
62.5% (8)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Cates
Stamkos
Home
46.3% (423)
53.4% (208)
Away
43.6% (438)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Cates
Stamkos
P1
46.3%
55.6%
P2
47.1%
52.8%
P3
42.1%
59.1%
OT
18.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |