Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 79.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 81.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 58.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Cates
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Stamkos
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Cates
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
49.3% (670)
-2.6%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
53.7% (121)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
33.3% (3)
+1.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Cates shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Cates
Stamkos
Home
46.1% (521)
54.0% (400)
Away
43.3% (584)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Cates
Stamkos
P1
48.0%
48.6%
P2
42.3%
54.5%
P3
44.3%
45.4%
OT
31.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:56 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |