Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Cates wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 86.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 85.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 82.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Cates
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Cates
Stamkos
Last 10: Cates 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
12
Cates
Stamkos
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
50.4% (9,799)
-6.3%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
55.1% (1,725)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
49.7% (825)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Cates shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Cates
Stamkos
Home
43.8% (1,663)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Cates
Stamkos
P1
44.5%
49.1%
P2
43.5%
52.7%
P3
41.2%
50.9%
OT
29.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
41.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:56 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |