Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Cates wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 76.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 83.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 83.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Cates
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Cates
Stamkos
Last 10: Cates 2-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Cates
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
7
Cates
Stamkos
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
55.3% (628)
-14.9%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
55.1% (216)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
40.2% (87)
-7.5%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Cates shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Cates
Stamkos
Home
38.2% (566)
55.5% (499)
Away
41.0% (488)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Cates
Stamkos
P1
40.5%
50.7%
P2
42.4%
53.8%
P3
35.3%
55.9%
OT
42.9%
87.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |