Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Thompson 43.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 51.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 53.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Cates
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cates
Thompson
Last 8: Cates 4-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Cates
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
43.3% (735)
-2.9%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
50.0% (26)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
36.5% (52)
-3.8%
On power play, Thompson has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Cates shoots left. Thompson is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Cates
Thompson
Home
38.2% (566)
44.5% (407)
Away
41.0% (488)
41.6% (406)
By Period
Cates
Thompson
P1
40.5%
44.4%
P2
42.4%
44.8%
P3
35.3%
40.2%
OT
42.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
36.8%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |