Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Thompson 43.7% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 57.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 79.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.8%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Cates
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Cates
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
41.9% (597)
+4.8%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
50.5% (95)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
25.0% (12)
+10.0%
On power play, Thompson has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Cates shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Cates
Thompson
Home
46.1% (521)
47.1% (367)
Away
43.3% (584)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Cates
Thompson
P1
48.0%
44.2%
P2
42.3%
41.6%
P3
44.3%
42.9%
OT
31.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Noah Cates |