Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs Thompson 44.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 59.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 54.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 63.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Cates
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Cates
Thompson
Last 6: Cates 4-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
44.6% (709)
-0.3%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
41.5% (53)
+36.3%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
35.1% (97)
-3.4%
On power play, Cates has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cates is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Cates shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Cates
Thompson
Home
52.0% (148)
45.5% (426)
Away
38.5% (182)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Cates
Thompson
P1
42.7%
48.5%
P2
42.9%
43.8%
P3
48.5%
38.1%
Final 5 min
44.0%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 3 | 00:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Noah Cates |