Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.9% vs 44.7%). Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Thompson 45.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 52.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 52.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 53.5%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Cates
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cates
Thompson
Last 7: Cates 3-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Cates
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
44.9% (642)
+0.5%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
47.9% (94)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
33.3% (33)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Cates
Thompson
Home
46.3% (423)
46.0% (391)
Away
43.6% (438)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Cates
Thompson
P1
46.3%
48.1%
P2
47.1%
44.9%
P3
42.1%
41.2%
OT
18.2%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.0%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:54 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |