Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Trocheck 63.1%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 75.4%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 62.2%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Cates
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Cates
Trocheck
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
2
Cates
Trocheck
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Trocheck
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
2
Cates
Trocheck
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
57.8% (626)
-12.4%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
63.6% (151)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
44.0% (141)
+0.7%
On power play, Trocheck has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Trocheck is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Cates
Trocheck
Home
46.3% (423)
54.4% (390)
Away
43.6% (438)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Cates
Trocheck
P1
46.3%
56.4%
P2
47.1%
58.7%
P3
42.1%
54.8%
OT
18.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 08:25 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:15 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |