Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Johnston 51.0% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 56.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 50.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Cates
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Cates
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Cates
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
52.6% (696)
-5.9%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
52.3% (88)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
42.4% (125)
-7.4%
On power play, Johnston has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Cates shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Cates
Johnston
Home
46.1% (521)
52.8% (458)
Away
43.3% (584)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Cates
Johnston
P1
48.0%
48.9%
P2
42.3%
52.3%
P3
44.3%
51.4%
OT
31.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
44.6%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |