Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 51.2%
Defensive zone
Johnston 63.7%
Neutral zone
Johnston 55.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Cates
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Cates
Johnston
Last 6: Cates 5-1 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
47.3% (666)
-1.8%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
50.7% (69)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
51.4% (35)
-6.7%
On power play, Johnston has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Cates
Johnston
Home
46.2% (468)
47.5% (364)
Away
43.9% (449)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Cates
Johnston
P1
46.0%
49.4%
P2
47.5%
46.9%
P3
42.1%
47.1%
OT
18.2%
47.1%
Final 5 min
44.8%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Noah Cates |