Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Brown wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 54.6% vs Carrick 52.1% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 56.0%
Defensive zone
Brown 67.2%
Neutral zone
Brown 58.8%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Brown
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Brown
Carrick
Last 6: Brown 5-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
4
0
Brown
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Brown
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
0
Brown
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (726)
52.1% (2,513)
+4.4%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
61.3% (75)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (136)
50.7% (430)
-2.9%
On even strength, Brown has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Brown shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Brown
Carrick
Home
57.4% (364)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
53.6% (506)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Brown
Carrick
P1
51.4%
51.8%
P2
54.6%
52.2%
P3
58.8%
52.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |