Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Thomas 52.9% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 55.0%
Defensive zone
Thomas 71.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 64.5%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Zacha
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Zacha
Thomas
Last 8: Zacha 3-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
4
Zacha
Thomas
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Zacha
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
53.2% (1,166)
+0.7%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
56.9% (262)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
48.4% (221)
-4.1%
On power play, Zacha has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Zacha
Thomas
Home
56.7% (538)
51.6% (830)
Away
52.8% (530)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Zacha
Thomas
P1
52.6%
52.7%
P2
54.8%
55.6%
P3
56.8%
50.6%
OT
59.1%
61.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 1 | 01:48 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |