Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 57.9%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 70.8%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 67.8%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Zacha
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Zacha
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Zacha
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Zacha
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
42.6% (324)
+11.3%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
31.3% (16)
+31.9%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
43.8% (16)
+0.5%
On power play, Zacha has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Zacha
Lafferty
Home
56.7% (538)
40.9% (181)
Away
52.8% (530)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Zacha
Lafferty
P1
52.6%
42.2%
P2
54.8%
36.4%
P3
56.8%
48.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 02:08 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 15:37 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |