Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 52.8% vs Aho 54.9% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 71.9%
Defensive zone
Aho 54.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 57.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Zacha
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Zacha
Aho
Last 5: Zacha 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
1
Zacha
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (534)
54.5% (870)
-0.4%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
62.4% (266)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (96)
37.1% (62)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Zacha shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Zacha
Aho
Home
53.4% (406)
53.9% (603)
Away
52.9% (333)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Zacha
Aho
P1
56.8%
54.1%
P2
53.6%
55.0%
P3
49.2%
57.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.2%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 13:11 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |