Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.7% vs Aho 50.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 75.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 65.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 57.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Zacha
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Zacha
Aho
Last 8: Zacha 3-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Zacha
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
1
Zacha
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (646)
49.9% (851)
+3.4%
Power Play
53.0% (100)
53.5% (144)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
43.3% (60)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Zacha shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Zacha
Aho
Home
51.7% (410)
53.2% (554)
Away
52.2% (408)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Zacha
Aho
P1
57.7%
49.1%
P2
48.9%
50.8%
P3
50.2%
49.7%
OT
35.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |