Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.1% vs Aho 51.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 25-22 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 66.9%
Defensive zone
Zacha 54.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 54.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Zacha
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
22
(47 meetings)
25
22
Zacha
Aho
Last 10: Zacha 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
12
Zacha
Aho
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
12
2
Zacha
Aho
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
9
8
Zacha
Aho
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,102)
50.1% (6,619)
-1.2%
Power Play
55.6% (804)
58.9% (1,310)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (555)
46.3% (464)
-4.1%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Zacha shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Zacha
Aho
Home
49.7% (3,353)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
48.5% (3,108)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Zacha
Aho
P1
49.9%
51.1%
P2
49.2%
52.0%
P3
48.1%
50.7%
OT
53.1%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 13:11 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 03:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |