Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 52.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 51.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Zacha
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Zacha
Stamkos
Last 10: Zacha 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Zacha
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
1
Zacha
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Zacha
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
55.9% (499)
-2.0%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
56.3% (126)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
58.3% (12)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Zacha
Stamkos
Home
56.7% (538)
55.3% (349)
Away
52.8% (530)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Zacha
Stamkos
P1
52.6%
57.0%
P2
54.8%
59.2%
P3
56.8%
51.5%
OT
59.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OT | 00:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |